Supply Chain Driver Parameters
🟢 Optimistic Scenario
Low fuel surcharge ($3.2/gal), high routing compliance (95%), minimal spot freight exposure.
🔵 Base Scenario (Expected)
Standard diesel fuel ($4.2/gal), standard tender acceptance (85%), balanced spot market mix.
🔴 Pessimistic Scenario
Diesel surge ($5.8/gal), low compliance (65%), heavy reliance on spot premiums & expedited fees.
Monte Carlo Risk Confidence Percentiles
Empirical distribution outcomes from 1,000 stochastic model runs
90% chance actual spend will exceed this floor.
50% probability budget lands above or below.
Recommended board-approved budget cap (90% confidence).
Unforeseen risk reserve needed above baseline.
Monte Carlo Probability Distribution Curve
Budget Outcome Frequency Histogram across 1,000 iterations
12-Month Cumulative Freight Budget Trajectory
Cumulative monthly cash flow projection across macro scenarios
Scenario Cost Component & Mode Sensitivity Matrix
| Cost Component / Metric | 🟢 Optimistic | 🔵 Base (Expected) | 🔴 Pessimistic | 🎲 Monte Carlo P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Contract Linehaul | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Spot Market Expedited Surcharge | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Fuel Variable Surcharge | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total Projected Annual Spend | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Cost per Cube ($/CBM) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Variance vs Base Budget | 0% | 0.0% (Baseline) | 0% | 0% |